Here’s what you need to know:
LOS ANGELES — Netflix’s poor showing at the recent Golden Globes prompted madcap delight in Hollywood’s more conventional quarters. Too bad, so sad: Perhaps try releasing your films in more than a handful of theaters next year, Big Tech.
But the hard-campaigning streaming giant is expected to resume its awards-season onslaught on Monday, when Oscar nominations are announced starting at 8:18 a.m. Eastern time.
Netflix will almost certainly be rewarded with more than 20 nominations, with some categories (like supporting actor) stacked three deep with contenders. “The Irishman,” Martin Scorsese’s latest gangster opus, and “Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach’s navel-gazing portrait of divorce, both of which belong to Netflix, are expected to receive nominations for best picture. Another Netflix movie, “The Two Popes,” could also get a best-picture nod.
Like the Globes, however, the 92nd Academy Awards will be a showdown between old and new Hollywood.
Oscar voters are also expected to shower nominations on traditional films (“1917,” “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “Ford v Ferrari”) from traditional studios (Universal, Sony, 20th Century Fox). The best-picture category can have as many as 10 or as few as five nominees, depending on how the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences spreads its support; last year there were eight, with “Green Book” ultimately winning.
The other takeaway may involve representation. Once again, the academy is poised to exclude women from the directing race. Black actors and actresses could also get overlooked, leading to a revival of the #OscarsSoWhite social media campaign. The academy has mounted an effort to double female and minority membership, in large part by inviting in more film professionals from overseas. But even after four years of the initiative, the organization remains 68 percent male and 84 percent white.
Last week, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts put forward an all-white field of acting nominees for its awards gala, snubbing widely praised performers like Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”), Eddie Murphy (“Dolomite Is My Name”) and Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”). “It’s time for change,” Erivo said afterward, declining an invitation to perform a song at the BAFTA banquet. “We can’t overlook it anymore.”
Over the last decade, the Academy Awards have become a bit superfluous, with a torrent of precursor ceremonies leaving fans (and honorees) exhausted and the contents of the envelopes unsurprising. The academy’s board of governors, alarmed by sharp declines in television ratings, decided in 2018 to move up this year’s ceremony. It will be held on Feb. 9, two weeks earlier than the last go-round, a seemingly small truncation that nonetheless has the movie capital in a tizzy.
ABC, which broadcasts the Oscars, said last week that the ceremony, viewed by roughly 30 million people in the United States, would not have a host for the second year in a row. Hosting is a thankless job that many celebrities turn down; fully vetting a host (scrubbing their social media accounts for potentially offensive comments) is time-consuming and far from foolproof; and last year’s host-free show stopped the ratings free-fall.
Here are four more things to consider before the nominations are announced:
It could be an important moment for Asian and Asian-American artists.
The acclaimed South Korean filmmaker Bong Joon Ho delivered one of the year’s most beloved movies, the drama-comedy-horror mash-up “Parasite.” It is virtually a lock for a best-picture nomination, and Bong is expected to be honored for his direction. “Parasite” will likely figure into the original screenplay and international film categories as well. (The academy retired the “best foreign-language film” name after last year’s ceremony; the prize is now called “best international feature.”)
Awkwafina won the Globe for best actress in a drama for her despondent granddaughter in “The Farewell,” Lulu Wang’s celebrated story about grieving and identity. Awkwafina could get a similar nod from Oscar voters, while her sublime co-star, Shuzhen Zhao, could be a supporting-actress nominee. Wang is a front-runner for her “Farewell” screenplay.
Will Greta Gerwig be included as a directing nominee?
Wang, Gerwig (“Little Women”), Marielle Heller (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”), Lorene Scafaria (“Hustlers”), Melina Matsoukas (“Queen & Slim”) and Kasi Lemmons (“Harriet”) delivered well-reviewed movies that connected at the box office in 2019.
But women have been pushed aside for directing honors, with the Globes and the influential Directors Guild of America giving all of their award nominations to men.
The Oscars may be no different. Gerwig has the best shot; her direction of the bespoke “Little Women” has been honored by numerous critics groups. If she does make the cut, Gerwig will make history as the first woman to become a two-time directing nominee. Only five women have ever been nominated for best director in the history of the Academy Awards, and Gerwig is one, having been honored for “Lady Bird” in 2018.
The best actor contest is unusually competitive.
Handicappers at Gold Derby, an entertainment honors site, see lead actor Oscar nominations going to Joaquin Phoenix, for his mentally ill outcast in “Joker”; Adam Driver, for his portrayal of a woebegone husband in “Marriage Story”; and Leonardo DiCaprio, who played a washed-up actor in “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood.” Antonio Banderas is another front-runner, with Oscar voters admiring his performance as a gravely depressed Spanish filmmaker in Pedro Almodóvar’s little-seen “Pain and Glory.”
That leaves stars like Murphy, Adam Sandler (“Uncut Gems”), Robert De Niro (“The Irishman”) and Christian Bale (“Ford v Ferrari”) vying for the fifth slot alongside the critically respected but lesser-known Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”) and the relative newcomer Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”).
The Netflix slate stretches to best documentary.
With its dump truck of campaign cash and at least seven films in contention, including the documentary “American Factory” and the animated “Klaus” and “I Lost My Body,” Netflix could have a very good morning — especially considering how new it is to the Oscars. The streaming service only received its first best-picture nomination last year (“Roma”). The first time it won anything was in 2018, when “Icarus” collected the Oscar for best documentary.
Nominating “American Factory,” about a Chinese billionaire who reopened an Ohio automotive plant, would be the equivalent of sending an Oscar invitation to Barack and Michelle Obama. The former president and first lady have a multiyear production deal with Netflix, and “American Factory,” produced with Participant Media, was their first release.
But Netflix also has weak spots. De Niro, 76, was overlooked by voters for the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, both of which serve as predictors for the Oscar race. Netflix has been pushing Baumbach for a directing nomination, to little avail. And “The Two Popes,” directed by Fernando Meirelles and costing a lavish $40 million to make, has been fading after a strong arrival on the campaign trail in the fall.
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January 13, 2020 at 05:00PM
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Oscar Nominations 2020: What to Watch For - The New York Times
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